Gallup polls are public opinion polls conducted by the polling division of the Gallup Organization, a company involved in various consulting and statistical research services. Gallup polls are among the most-respected public polls, as they are considered to have a high degree of accuracy. Political analysts, news agencies and other mass-media outlets frequently cite Gallup poll statistics to demonstrate public opinion on a variety of topics.
The Importance of Polling
Polls have been around for generations. The idea behind a poll is that measuring a sample of the population will allow you to estimate the opinion of the entire population. Dr. George Gallup, an American statistician, developed the first Gallup polls in the 1930s. Dr. Gallup was a pioneer in the science of public polling. While his surveys were certainly not the first public polls, Gallup's polls were notable because he refused to undertake any poll that was paid for or otherwise sponsored by special-interest groups. This helped to ensure absolute objectivity and accurate results in his polls. Over the years, Gallup polls have been conducted about nearly every possible issue, whether political, social or economic. Gallup has even conducted polls about polling.
A Polling Benchmark
Gallup polls have been remarkably accurate when it comes to predicting the outcome of presidential elections. However, Gallup nearly lost all credibility in the 1948 election, when he inaccurately predicted Thomas Dewey as the winner over Harry Truman. The error arose because Gallup stopped polling in mid-October, while Truman continued to campaign. There was a late surge of support for Truman, and he managed to take the election.
The Gallup organization refinined its methods following the 1948 campaign, once again establishing itself as an accurate predictor of public opinion. They were wrong once again in 1976, when Jimmy Carter won the presidency over incumbent Gerald Ford by a small margin.
In addition to predicting political outcomes, Gallup polls are used track public opinion regarding a wide range of topics, including economics, education, foreign policies, religion, health matters and employment. The results of these polls allow us to follow various social and economic trends. These trends are monitored by market analysts, advertisers, politicians and other people who wish to keep their finger on the pulse of the American public.
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